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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Eric L who wrote (37153)12/29/2000 12:54:55 PM
From: 100cfm  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
When do you project that CDMA will be the dominant wireless radio interface?

Well it's hard to say, it depends on how successful DOCOMO's wcdma launch will be and whether or not the Koreans delay their wcdma rollout. If I had to pick a date and go out on the limb,assuming the Koreans stay on schedule and Docomo is as successful as the original i-mode launch, I would say end of 03 to mid 04. I'm also basing my guess on the fact that IJ has stated that the 2nd billion wireless phones will be CDMA dominated as vs the 1st billion which will be GSM dominated. Since the 1st billion will be reached sometime within the next 18 months according to NOK then CDMA's domination of new subscribers begins somewhere around mid 02. I am also expecting a mad rush of subscriers switching to high speed wireless services which will be CDMA of one flavor or another. So I think the 2nd billion phones will come much faster then we think and with it cdma domination.That's why I think Docomo's WCDMA launch being successful is crucial to Q, unlike alot of other people who want DOCOMO to fall on their face. If the demand for WCDMA is there I think you will see alot of other carriers getting more aggressive in thier WCDMA rollout schedules which brings money into Q sooner then later.

100
PS: If China goes back to the dark side then all bets are off.
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