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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT)
HLIT 10.02-1.6%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: pass pass who wrote (3970)12/29/2000 2:15:58 PM
From: nghi vu  Read Replies (1) of 4134
 
I do disagree on Management but that is just my opinion. Don't know them so can't comment how well they know and run the company.

Here are the points that separate Cien and HLIT that I think many don't look at

a) when Cien dropped to 8, it didn't do it in the face of 3 consecutive money loosing, 30% plus declinig sale that HLIT endured so far. Cien revenue basically was flat for about 2-3 quarters during this ugly period(I might be wrong here since I am getting old and my memory is no longer sharp)

b) When Cien dropped to 8, it is a company specific problem and not a cable industry/telco industry problem. T didn't drop them/return order or cancel order. T was a potential customer for Cien that ended up didn't order after testing didn't work out with their products. Also the Tlab merger debacle. I know Ciena well, I owned and sold in the 50's before the crash to 8. Ciena didn't double up its employee count and saddled itself with big expenses like HLIT did with the Divicom acquisition. The Tlab debacle was a good thing for Ciena in hindsight.

c) When Cien dropped to 8, the cable industry didn't announce a major scale down like HLIT is facing today. Like I said in my previous post, everything work right for Ciena in hindsight, they faced growing pain but the acceptance of their products were at the early stage during the hiccup. Heck, most thought Lucent will be the winner and wouldn't even thought about Nortel back then. Bottom line, the game and landscape have changed significantly. Not recognizing that fact can be detrimental to owning this stock.

d) There are many more points that would poke hole in any Ciena analogy in my opinion. You are likely to disagree with what I wrote above but heck...it is healthy discussion for the lurkers that may want to buy into this stock to look at all angles.
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