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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 73.87-0.1%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (45488)12/29/2000 8:07:15 PM
From: bambs  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
Gary...to be frank...I do enjoy sticking the FACTS in your face...You deserve it. Maybe you should take the time to go back and read the discussions we had in the spring...how we argued on and on about csco and the reasons why it should go to $35 this year not $100. How it will be dead money for years not a long term buy...maybe you should read your posts through out the year and see if you can understand how I could possibly enjoy seeing you eat your words. At least you are big enough to admit that you were wrong.

I was right and not for all the wrong reasons like you choose to state. I was right and for a combination of all the reasons I stated this year. The market is not a simple thing...many factors lead to the sell off in the nasdaq and csco. I think I covered most of they through out the year. You said that the articles I posted were garbage and that everything one needed to see was in the sec filing...you argued all year with every point I raised. When I was finally proven right by csco trading down to $35 and the Nasdaq 2500, you had the balls to show up here and say that I may be right but for all the wrong reasons.

I challenge you to explain why csco and the nasdaq sold off. I think you will find that you will list the reasons I gave starting back in the spring and VALUATION, P/E, and FUTURE EXPECTATIONS OF GROWTH is biggest reason. Even if csco grows to have 100 billion in revenue in ten years and then has a growth rate of 10% with margins of 10% it would deserve a p/e of 15 and would trade between $10-15 in 2010.
The numbers don't lie...I have listed many reasons why csco was and is doomed to failure in share price. This list stands...the market cap doesn't make any sense. 15 times revenue for a company this size is insane. You will find out the hard way that we are in the start of a long bear market...it will hit the dow and s&p next year.

As for why I don't short csco and hold? If I just shorted csco once at $70 and waited all year I would have only made a 50% return. I am a trader and I invest in cash each night that gets me 4.5%. I trade during the day and have pulled a 350% return on my equity this year. I will be longing and shorting all next year...you can bet on it. Biotech and financials are ripe for the shorting next year. It will be many TA trading though. As I expect that most of the moves in the sector will come on no news just price action.

Bambs
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