T2,
I am not that optimistic in the ST because I am concerned about tech guidance when earnings starts next month. When the market got increasing sequential earnings growth, it was willing to overlook extreme valuation inflation.
Now, we've got anything but sequential positive growth (or the very last we should be seeing for a little while....), and it's going to go the other way. We're going to get more valuation compression until....
The market thinks the tide is ready to turn, and sequential earnings growth can positively accelerate.
Part of that is getting better Q over Q, and Y over Y comparisons (which won't really be evident in 2001 because 2000 for most tech companies was so good...), but WS wants to see real progress on the top line AND will take bottom line until they can get both (layoffs are coming, you wait).
I guess the starters gun goes off when a few brave Mutual Funds see a wee bit of light that we've truly bottomed (or their economists/research groups tell them we have...), and start buying. Then more and more....denial turns into true anticipation and we start a new up leg, because no-one wants to be left behind.
Late Q2, being very optimistic is my guess. It's not that we'll have good days/strings of days, but I'm talking a sustained bull start that's semi-bankable much more than day trading.
BWDIK? It's frankly something that we'll all be watching and anticipating. ALL of us.
You have a good holiday.
Steve |
