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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2785)12/29/2000 9:34:32 PM
From: Lee   of 3536
 
Robert,

I have less confidence that a Fed rate cut at this point will avert a recession.

Recent news includes:

 lower 2001 revenue estimates for many large firms
 a planned 10% reduction in automobile output
 concerns of excess inventory

The consumer status is:

 personal savings has been negative for 6 months
 stock wealth has been declining
 job market weakening

In the construction market:

 housing starts are down for the year
 recent home sales were positive
 weakening office sector

Government spending is growing.

Globally I think Europe will strengthen short term while Japan is a problem.

At this point I think a US consumer that is increasing savings it too much a drag to for the US economy to avert a recession.

Regards,
Lee
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