You need a reality check, Ed. I'm going to give it to you.
(Bambs and Monty, please bookmark this post for later use. In the future it will be much easier for you to post a link to this, than to spend the time and energy responding to Eds latest rantings du jour).
<<"Monty and Bambs, thanks for the help. You were one of the factors responsible for a huge personal success in these investments."
Statements like this should not be taken literally as they are not really sincere and are only propaganda. From this persons very first post it was obvious he had an agenda.>>
Your thesis that I was insincere from the beginning is not supported by the posts on this thread.
My very first post on this thread was #40882
To: kvkkc1 who wrote (40845)
From: Tom D
Sunday, Oct 15, 2000 7:50 PM ET
Reply # 40882 of 45521
Is CSCO losing significant market share to JNPR?
I am considering selling some CSCO in light of Alexander Henderson's paragraph about market share from Thursday evening. It appears that CSCO
rose in sympathy with JNPR on Friday, in the expectation that the stories about plans for decreased telecom spending are wrong again this year (just
like prior years).
Does anybody know anything very current about market share projections? Or about telecom spending? Also, if CSCO was going to warn about an
earnings shortfall, would they have already done so, given an expected reporting date of November 17?
Thanks,
Tom D
<<Alexander Henderson, analyst with Salomon Smith Barney, said Juniper's third-quarter results indicate that it could have picked up five to eight
percentage points in market share from Cisco. In the second quarter, Juniper's share of the Internet core router market rose to 22.4% from 17.3% in
the first quarter, while Cisco's fell to 75.4% from 80%, according to Dell'Oro Group, a network equipment research firm.>>
quicken.excite.com.
My next post was 40884
To: Eric who wrote (40883)
From: Tom D
Sunday, Oct 15, 2000 10:19 PM ET
Reply # 40884 of 45521
Thanks.
Excite's "financials" indicated a reporting date of 11.16.00 but I believe CSCOs IR page a lot more than Excite.
quicken.excite.com
Tom
Then came 40885 from somebody trying to HELP me with his rearview mirror approach to stock timing.
To: Tom D who wrote (40882)
From: Ed Forrest
Sunday, Oct 15, 2000 10:44 PM ET
Reply # 40885 of 45521
I am considering selling some CSCO in light of Alexander Henderson's paragraph about market share from Thursday evening.
Have you held Cisco for an extended period of time and if so,has it performed up to your expectations?
From my own point of view it would take more than one analysts report of Cisco losing 4.6% market share to motivate me to sell, or even think of it, a
stellar market performer such as Cisco has been.Having said that,nothing in the future is guaranteed.
I have seen no calls of late by other analysts regarding this market share disclosure and it's possible effect on Ciscos earnings going forward.Are you
aware of any?
Ed
Then 40886
To: Ed Forrest who wrote (40885)
From: Tom D
Sunday, Oct 15, 2000 11:16 PM ET
Respond to Post # 40886 of 45521
Yes, CSCO has been a long-term hold.
Its not the 4.6% loss in market share from Q2 that is worrisome. It is the possible additional loss of 5 to 8 percentage points that concerns me. The
issue is....did JNPRs blowout quarter come at CSCOs expense?
I am not aware of any other information regarding market share predictions. I was hoping that perhaps somebody on the thread has some new
information about telecom spending on high speed routers.
CSCO has exceeded expectations. JNPR has also. My concern is that one of these companies is probably overvalued. When one projects into the
future, does each company deserve its current valuation? If there was going to be an additional 5 to 8 point shift in market share this quarter, I'd be
inclined to sell half my CSCO.
I am not sure if the street does not believe Alexander Henderson or if they do not know what he wrote. It is true that he hedged with his verbage.
Tom D
Then somebody posted #40892
To: Tom D who wrote (40886)
From: Ed Forrest
Monday, Oct 16, 2000 1:59 AM ET
Respond to Post # 40892 of 45521
Tom
you have articulated your concerns well.Let me be the first to welcome you to the thread.
Cheers
Ed
Why would you welcome me to the thread in this way if you believed <<From this persons very first post it was obvious he had an agenda.>>?
In conclusion...there is documentation that I came to this thread as a long-term bull, wondering if the party was over.
Here is Bambs first post to me. It was unsolicited.
To: Tom D who wrote (40882)
From: bambs
Monday, Oct 16, 2000 9:25 AM ET
Respond to Post # 40896 of 45521
Tom. It's not just about market share. The problem for csco is that they will have to continue to lower their margins to keep market share. The end
result will be that this stock is truly dead money.
Bambs
In fact, here I tried to dissuade Monty from shorting JNPR. Hardly sounds like I had "an agenda" (presumably an agenda to abet an conspiracy to undermine the share prices of JNPR and CSCO) from the very first post.
To: Monty Lenard who wrote (40902)
From: Tom D
Monday, Oct 16, 2000 5:47 PM ET
Respond to Post # 40905 of 45521
Here is a risk of shorting so soon...
Message 14586814
Tom D
Monty quickly won my respect with his gracious acceptance of my information, and then with being proven right so quickly.
To: Tom D who wrote (40905)
From: Monty Lenard
Monday, Oct 16, 2000 6:06 PM ET
Respond to Post # 40907 of 45521
Well if the stop me out they just stop me out and I will catch it higher. Not every one goes perfect from the get go but I protect myself for another day
and make em pay double. :-))
But I do appreciate the info!
Monty
Then along comes this cogent post 40911 from Bambs.
Message 14593304
Followed by this 41070
To: Monty Lenard who wrote (40943)
From: Tom D
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2000 4:25 PM ET
Reply # 41070 of 45521
Sold all my CSCO and JNPR.
Half yesterday at 55 1/8 and 225 and half today at 50 5/8 (ouch--lousy execution by the broker--what a ripoff) and 225.
I appreciate your postings--they helped. These were both long-term capital gains.
Tom
So I sold CSCO at an average of $52 7/8 and JNPR at $225. And posted those sales. Now CSCO is at $38 1/4 and JNPR at $126.
I think the least I can do is thank Monty and Bambs for helping me save a boatload of money. They gave me good advice.
I don't know where you get this notion of a deficiency of sincerity. I think the truth is in Bambs posting Message 14593304 where he wrote (months ago) that "You love to try to intimidate people from posting anything negative".
Hope you are enjoying your what you did with Bambs and Monty's excellent advice about CSCO in the last two months as much as I am.
Sincerely,
Tom D |
