However, I know my limits, and I know I cannot time the market, and hence, do not attempt what, for me, is a one way ticket to poverty. Sure, my buy and hold strategy has its weaker periods, but since I'm both ahead one-thousand fold for the last decade, and not particularly greedy, I accept the punishment of these declines as part of the price of a buy-and-hold participation for the next decade.
One thing to consider is what if I am right? What if this isn't just a pull back year in your typical uptrending market. What over the next few years the Dow and S&P are cut in half...that nasdaq does slide to 1000...csco $15? What if this just the start of a long bear market? It is hard to "time the market" but some times you have to look at the big picture and see that it's time to play safe and be bearish. Debt, Inflation, no more easy gains from investments, competition, lower margins, higher energy costs, lower credit ratings/higher bond interest rates, all mean lower growth of earnings for almost all corporations. The p/e's don't make any sense. The excess liquidity pumped in to this market has made most stocks way over valued. The adjustment back to reality will be a painful cycle. As the market falls so will the wealth of the nation and the spending habits will change. Competition will increase as companies fight over fewer spending dollars...Make no mistake about it. This is the start of a cycle. The bottom will be found a long way off. There will be no soft landing...IT'S A LIE!
Bambs |
