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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who started this subject	12/30/2000 2:36:30 PM
From: Mike Buckley	of 54805

ELEVEN YEAR-END MUSINGS (in no particular order) 1) I see that tekboy is still on his anti-bloat campaign. A better option would be for him to launch an anti-options campaign. :) 2) I lost my second annual investing bet with a friend. Having also lost the first one, it's now a string of losses. Not only do I get to rejoice that my losing bets support her child's college fund, but they also benefit me with the continuing education that I'm lousy at short-term stock picks. Here's to losing again in 2001, which is probably a forgone conclusion. 3)In Y2k the S&P 500 ended its record-breaking string of five consecutive annual gains in excess of 20%. If I remember correctly, the previous record was three in a row. My guess (only a guess) is that despite this year's 10% loss, the last six years are still probably the best six years in the history of the index. There's gotta be a lesson somewhere there about long-term investing. 4) Merlin has losses too. This was his worst investing year since he's been seriously tracking his portfolio beginning in 1990. His portfolio was down an annualized rate of 34%. Why anyone pays attention to him is beyond me. 5) On the other hand, maybe he was right all along that people shouldn't invest with money they'll need in the next seven or eight years. 6) Merlin's portfolio lost to the S&P 500 in three of the last eleven years and doubled the index only in five of them. Yet his portfolio doubled the index for the eleven-year period. It also doubled the index during the last six years but it happened on an annual basis only one time. In fact, the index doubled the portfolio two times in that period -- one-third of the time!. Is this anecdotal evidence that measuring portfolio performance between January 1 and December 31 is a meaningless, purely arbitrary use of dates? He thinks so. 7) This remains the best thread in cyberspace. Just imagine how good it would be if its leader appreciated the nuances of subtle humor. :) 8) When I look at my portfolio, I notice that the companies I understand the least are the smaller holdings and those I understand the most are the larger holdings. That could be nothing more than a coincidence. I've never thought about it that way so I really don't know. 9) The Fool's Jeff Fisher wrote a couple years ago that anyone who has been investing for at least five years and doesn't have at least one stock that's been in the portfolio for five years really isn't a long-term investor. I've owned only one at least 3 1/2 years and that's Silverback Cisco. But I'm still trying to become a long-term investor. 10) On July 20, Merlin sold all of his shares in Citrix and used all of the cash as well as more cash to purchase shares of SanDisk. SanDisk shares have fallen 60% since then. Citrix shares have risen 22%. So much for crystal balls. (Frank, I know what you're thinking. Forget it.) 11) Make 2001 a great year. Don't let a day go by without hugging someone. --Mike Buckley

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