Fred Andrews: re. PTV, CCK, SEE and pkg/container stocks: I'm looking at your PTV again. I remember it from your postings on the spin-off thread.
The stock's now about 12 3/8, up about 25% from the time of your post(s) about a year ago. The stock also signaled a buy - in hindsight - of course -g- in hindsight - when it dropped to about 7 1/2 this year, because at that level it equaled the price at which at least some insiders had their options priced. Sorry I missed the signal and the stock.
What brings me to PTV is SEE and CCK. Sealed Air trades at a multiple that's almost like a busted growth stock. On a p/e basis, to me, the stock is growth-stock expensive - even though the stock price has already come down substantially. In the recent past, there's not been much revenue growth. (Nobody expects too much from packaging/container companies anyway.) So I can't understand why the stock is still so expensively priced.
stocksheet.com
Even more perplexing, I can't fathom why the Davis Funds are so heavily invested here. (I looked at SEE when I read somewhere that Chris Davis had taken a big position in the stock. These Davis brothers are/have been EXCELLENT investors.)
To me, SEE and PTV are comparable, but PTV is much less expensive. SEE has MUCH less debt though, and that may be significant enough to make all the difference. Both are about $2-3B in market cap. SEE has twice the EBITDA, but at a casual look, I attribute that to PTV's expenses associated with becoming an independent company. If PTV can earn the same margins as SEE, then PTV should be a double from current price. I realize that to do this analysis right, we ought to look at the different markets and businesses served by each company - not all packaging and container markets are growing equally or similarly profitable. PTV prides themselves - or so it appears - on their innovative use of technology, so if they are aggressive and savvy in marketing (as I would like to expect from a newly independent company), then they should eventually, I guess, be similar to SEE. With its good ROE and a good (higher) price/book.
Here's a comparison. (I included AMCR -- I follow it although it's difficult to get much info. on this foreign co.)
quicken.com
OTOH. CCK. I've totally messed up with all these pkg/container companies. Just very sad. What's the use of following or monitoring if I don't buy even one when there's value? The value as mentioned here by others for example with CCK. And Steve Emmerich's post suggesting I might/could/should/ reconsider and step up to CCK at 5 (even though I didn't buy at 3) because CCK might still have room to run -- he was right. Right about the stock, and right about my making a classic error of not being willing to buy value just because the stock has come up off its lows from a few days earlier. It's up now another 49% to 7 7/16. Not a bad move in a week. And it might go further if there's a "January effect." CCK may be the best bet still in this whole sector. Somehow, I'm more attracted to PTV--. Either I must mentally reset regarding CCK (this is hard for me -g-) and then take a small position, or else I will just have to get comfortable with the idea that CCK is going to be one of those many companies I coulda/shoulda/dint invest in and which got away from me.
Paul Senior |
