I had been a long term buy and holder.
Have been worried that we were in a bubble. I sold a lot of stocks in Jan 2000, figuring that it was time to lay low. Turns out I was wrong. I moved some back in in late Feb in time to get punished in March. Just goes to show how hard it is to time this. In 1999 I bought ICGE at about 30 and sold it at 45. It went to over 200. I got very lucky with JNPR, and sold CSCO at about 53.
At this point, my attitude is that I've got enough wealth. I just don't want to lose a lot of it. If I can make 10-15% annually with minimal risk, I will be happy. In the past week I have finally gotten 90% of my wealth turned over to a professional money manager. The only single remaining stock I own outside of the money manager is VRTS. Otherwise I am 37% bonds, 12% international stocks, 12% small caps and the rest in Cambiar, a money manager that has not had a negative year in the past 25 years. Cambiar even did well in the bear market of the 70's.
Overall the professionally managed portfolio has about 50% of the risk of the S&P and about 80% of the upside potential.
I honestly don't know if we are heading into a bear market for a few years, or if 2001 will be bullish. The management firm, SSB, thinks that 2001 will be an up year, but that different stocks than tech will do well.
I think that the risk that George W Bush will profoundly damage our economy is significant. His threatened tax cut ties Greenspans hands--AG can't lower rates if W is going to implement the mother of all tax cuts. W's Keynesian approach to economic management instead of Monetarist strategies is a triumph of politics (voters like tax cuts) over economic science.
Another major risk is that many of the so-called "leading" companies, such as CSCO are doing it with smoke and mirrors--pooling vs purchase accounting methods.
Frankly, these investment decisions are so difficult that I think it is inappropriate for anybody, whether they are right or wrong to be ridiculing those of differing opinions. But I must confess that Ed has annoyed me enought to take him to task for numerous insults directed at so many people.
Anyway, I hope it goes well for you.
Tom D |
