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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: The Verve who wrote (37230)	12/30/2000 8:29:25 PM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (2) of 54805

'cause I sorta feel that we've gotten blindsided Verve, I couldn't put my finger on it but you did, that is exactly what I feel has happened. We are all sitting here waiting for Q to rise to it's preordained throne because we know that 1X and CDMA2000 is so superior no one in their right minds would choose to go another route. Well it just shows you how wrong you can be. We Q diehards on all the threads have been scratching our heads why anybody would be so stupid as to go WCDMA much less GPRS/EDGE. We couldn't figure it out, especially with the Koreans because we thought they knew like we did how superior 1x/cdma2000 is. That is what we believed, I believe we were wrong and maybe IJ has overhyped 1X/CDMA2000, I don't know anymore. All I know is Synder looks right, CDMA2000 is a product practically no one wants. 1X is not the greatest thing since the napkin and has no appeal to anybody other then current cdmaone users. Those are the facts, so now we must figure out how bad this effects Q. WCDMA money should start to trickle in from the handsets and base stations DOCOMO is buying. That is if the vendor acknowledges Q's patents. Q completes it's WCDMA lineup by end of this coming year. Sales to DOCOMO in 02?? I don't see any planned 02 rollouts for WCDMA by anybody else, I could be wrong on this, I hope so. So no real ramp until WCDMA rollouts in 03. Also with re to WCDMA Eric makes a very important point that Q will have little control of the final architecture if any. That's not a good thing either. China still a question mark. Could be our savior in between now and 03 if they go with a major buildout. But as Mike keeps reminding us, when you expect things to happen by a certain time they usually don't. So until we see firm vendor contracts for infrastructure with some sort of scope in the size of the buildout along with some sort of timeframe, china is a non factor. I see no reason for Nextel to go our way even though there have been strong rumors that they will. So where do we get the upside earnings surprise from?? That is the question and I fear when the street figures out that there may not be one, down we'll go. We needed one carrier to defect to our side, we didn't get it and it doesn't look like we will. That makes China a must for us. Otherwise what you've been told for earnings is all you're gonna get and that is most likely baked into the price already. I was counting on Q on making a big come back this year and my portfolio along with it. But I think a few ingredients are missing from that recipe.

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