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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (37244)12/30/2000 9:41:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Where's the blindside?

Thank you, Thomas. I'm in your camp.

I really respect 100's ability lay out the series of events he expected to be happening that aren't. I don't have such a deep understanding as he does. Our fundamental difference, though, is that I simply didn't have those expectations.

It's been my thinking all along that WCDMA was going to be an interim step over a period of many years that would be necessary before we get wide-spread adoption of CDMA2000. My enthusiasm for a long-term investment in Qualcomm has been based on my understanding that any flavor of CDMA would inure to Qualcomm's benefit and that eventually the world would at least be using WCMDA as the dominate air interface. As of this date, I haven't seen anything other than the typical FUD to dispel that notion. The long-term fundamentals about that remain firmly in place and, in fact, are more solidly in place than this time last year or when I made my investment nearly two years ago.

I could be very wrong about all of the above. But if I am, I'd like someone to explain:

1) Why CDMA won't become THE world-wide interface and
2) Why Qualcomm won't get royalties from the use of WCDMA.

The remaining issue at this point -- a question I've had since day number one -- seems to be that we don't know how much money Qualcomm will recieve from worldwide use of WCDMA. With the proliferation of handheld devices and increased moving of data that will surely overtake the amount of voice being moved, the only thing I know is that the market will be huge.

I'm not an analyst. I've never known what the market size might be or how many dollars could flow through Q's coffers. I'm happy to wait and see. If I weren't, I would never have invested in Qualcomm.

--Mike Buckley
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