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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87724)	12/30/2000 9:43:31 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) of 132070

MB, I should have read Kindelberger's "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" long ago but I didn't. Bought it today. If I had read it I might have held my LEAP puts on AMZN, YHOO, LU, MOT, and CMGI until now and made five times as much money as I did! It's just that living amidst a bunch of lunatics one does begin to be afraid of acting with complete rationality. To use the analogy I have employed much earlier: like expressing reservations about the Wehrmacht in 1942 at the height of the success of the invasion of Russia. I think we can be confident of an eventual denouement that will take P/Es down below the historical norm of 15, and that implies at least a 25% decline on the Dow (to below 7500 and a 40% decline of the S&P. Plus a NAZ at 1500. I actually think the Dow might overshoot to 5000. I used to say 4000, but that was 2-3 years ago.

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