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Biotech / Medical : Trickle Portfolio

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To: tuck who wrote (303)	12/30/2000 11:18:29 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) of 1784

Tuck, Congrats on a great thread! I have been occasionally lurking around. Unfortunately I have been so busy personally and professionally it has been hard to keep up the 8 or 9 threads that I like to follow. A couple of comments on some names in the sector: ABSC- Solid technology and excellent scientists but the company has not figured out what they want to be when they grow up. I do not think they are getting the full value out of their technology and seem to want to become a drug discovery company. I have no problem with moving up the value stream but IMO they have not articulated a cogent business plan. That is why I sold them in VD. I would like to see them combine with a reagent company. Waters- I love this company and while I have owned it personally for a couple of years I foolishly never put it in VD. Excellent management and extrememly well positioned. I also think they should try and buy a reagent company but there are not many left that would not be dilutive. Pharmingen, Clonetech, New England Nuclear, Life Tech all sold. Stratagene and Promega the only private ones left. Waters will probably eventually be bought by Agilent at a big premium. INVG - With all the mergers I keep expecting them to blow up but they have proved me wrong. The quality of the science is IMO mediocre. The quality of the operations and the ability to in licence or buy technology and products has been excellent as has marketing and sales. This company like a number of reagent companies will be HELPED by the strengthening of the Euro. The weak Euro has probably cost INVG 5% in revenue growth in the first 3quarters of the year. CALP - Exquisite technology but overvalued. We are not buying art but value and Caliper is overvalued. PBSC - cheap at current levels. QGENF - Excellent company and management but how big is the separation market and where are they going to branch out for growth. AFFX - It is becoming clearer and clearer AFFX will dominate the chip market for a long long time. INCY - In 5 years people will be tearing their hair out having the knowledge they could have bought INCY at $24 in Jan of 2001. LEXG - Their knockout mouse is becoming the standard. Stock was very cheap a week ago and is still a good value. The big question is how high on the value curve they can be. If they stay at the same value someone will buy them. GZTC - I wish they would sell the damm low margin CRO already. If they prove they can economically make MABs then its a home run. V1 Just a few thoughts. Happy New Year. V1

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