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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (39682)12/31/2000 2:51:57 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) of 42787
 
Jim,

Per the chart you mentioned:
quote.yahoo.com^SOXX&d=mym&y=on

Firstly, the following is not statistically viable, regardless I believe there is still some merit.

Those MAIN CYCLES in the SOX are approximately 2 years in length. After each of the 3 peaks there was a strong selloff. After the strong selloffs there was a FIBONACCI retracement, before the final leg down.

With the current cycle, I am suspecting that the FIB rebound is about to start.

So in those main cycles of the SOX there are basicly 2 bottoms, where the 2nd bottom is lower than the 1st. Its also interesting to note that in the 2 previous cases the SOX led the NAZ downward into the 2nd bottom, which became the base/bottom for the next bull run in both the SOX and NAZ.

In the 2 previous cases, the timeframe between BOTTOM 1 and BOTTOM 2 of the SOX cycle took approximately 6-9 months. If the SOX was to repeat that pattern, assuming now is BOTTOM 1, then BOTTOM 2 should arrive around JUNE-SEPT.

There has been a bit of discussion about the 3 phases of a bear market(NAZ), and some are saying that PHASE 2 is in the process of being completed. That 2nd LEG DOWN into BOTTOM 2 of the SOX CYCLE may be the trigger for PHASE 3 of the NAZ BEAR MARKET.

Jim, I guess I could say that Im now playing for the FIBONACCI REBOUND off of BOTTOM 1 of the SOX CYCLE. If I get this one right, Im going to treat myself to a whole lot of dumplings. gggggggggg

Happy New Year
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