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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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From: brunn	12/31/2000 3:26:35 AM
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Perhaps there is hope for the new year: AMAT's return in even years since 1990=12% AMAT's return in odd years since 1991=109% Probably a coincidence. Possibly a reflection of the cyclical nature of their business. Personally, I would be happy with a 109% return in 2001. It really is rather reachable, a goal that would put them well below their all time high (remember that it only took a few months from the October 1998 bottom to reach a new high and gain over 100%). By the way, their best year (1999) was followed by their worst year (2000). The annual return over these two years at 34.5% was actually 6% below the average annual return of 40.7% since 1990. The two previous down years (1990 and 1996) were followed by 64% and 67% gains. 1990 -25% 1991 64% 1992 91% 1993 130% 1994 10% 1995 85% 1996 -9% 1997 67% 1998 41% 1999 197% 2000 -37%

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