Thanks Ben and Eric L for your explanation
of what is happening in the standards "battle" er, I mean, standards "harmonization". I guess we need something in between like standards "tough love". While this is going on, and negotiations take place, one always looks for observable indications that might give more credibility to one side or the other. It was in this light that Korea and AWE and now Cingular's defections seem problematic. Plus for the observers such as myself that don't understand the nuances of the standards "tough love" process it is easier to see wins and losses, sideshows though they are, as indications of what is happening in the big show.
For example, I was hoping that if 1xevdv was so great that some of these guys like CINGULAR would go with 1x now in order to get it sooner. It seems this is wrong though and the UMTS version will have it as well in the "harmonized" version and therefore there is no reason to prefer 1x now.
Thanks for explaining again all of the behind the scenes happenings that are not as easily observable as the immediate decisions of the TDMA providers.
Part of the problem with getting away from the "battle" metaphor though is that Irwin Jacobs, at least in
China, is preaching that these firms should go to CDMA 1x instead of W-CDMA because of the speed to market. It doesn't seem
like much of a leap to think that he also would have liked Cingular and AWE to do so for TDMA. Here is what he was saying about China in a Business Week (Tokyo) interview dated Dec 20:
Q: In the competition for the third-generation system, you seem to favor CDMA2000 over
wideband CDMA, the standard developed in Japan on the basis of Qualcomm's CDMA
technology. Why is that?
A: You have to ask which is earlier to market, has the best technology, and is cheaper to roll
out. My answer is CDMA2000. [The forerunner to] CDMA2000 is already in operation in
Korea, so it has gone to market a year earlier than wideband CDMA [which is scheduled to
debut in Japan in May]. Also, the equipment will be cheaper because you'll be able to build on
the existing system.... For GSM [global system for mobile communications] operators, it's
cheaper and faster to do CDMA2000. They'll be able to do it a year or two earlier.
Q: But many operators appear to be veering to wideband CDMA. How do you explain this?
A: They've been told it's an evolution of GSM, but that's not right. They think it'll be out in
2001, but it may be later. Now that the license auctions are over, operators have to think what
is the fastest way to move ahead. I think CDMA2000 is the better one.
Q: What kind of applications can we expect with next-generation wireless networks?
A: With a transmission speed of 64 kilobits per second, you'll be able to handle
videoconferencing. But the issue is: How many subscribers can you handle? Going to CDMA
will help you handle more. Also, you'll be able to plug your computer into a wireless network,
so you'll be able to go online anywhere and anytime. We're working on chips that support the
CDMA2000 technology. For example, we're working on adding GPS [global positioning
system capabilities], so your phone will know where it is. It'll be useful in emergencies and
will also provide for interesting e-mobile applications. You'll be able to download maps, for
example...." |
