"How much of a pop will AOL get if/when"
Our management (yeah right) is conspicuously quiet/absent and the price is hammered by short positions. I think that's exactly what they want as it further reduces the cost of the merger/acquisition, or whatever they're calling it this week.
A couple of thoughts on the subject of "what will it do".
a. Merger is a done deal with FTC approval, FCC is a rubber stamp (when they're ready), so, price should have already started to move up. Since it hasn't, it probably
won't.
b. Case and Co. are standing aside with positive comments and in fact have released negative comments (added burden if deal doesn't close by end of year) plus, probably have contributed substantially to the heavy PUT volume in order to hold the price down, minimizing cost of merger. When deal is done, they will release a flood of positive projections, close PUTS and the price will shoot upwards.
c. Regardless of the merger close, price will remain depressed for 3 to 4 quarters while the world appraises structure/performance of new company, then to become a "value" investment of price stability. This is most likely scenario as it appears to be a self fulfilling prophecy, particularly while in the death grip of the bear.
That's 2 to 1 for a flat to down price performance.
All this and a buck will get you cup of coffee. |
