Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: JagBrad who wrote (83091)	12/31/2000 12:53:48 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

BradR et al - re: Shorting the Nat Gas E&P's/calling a top etc... My "gut" said short into the move this past week; but my brain said wait... as we are still early into "winter" and I would prefer to have some analysts upgrade the group's price targets (to set up the exit of their institutional clients) & start leaking out the upside earnings surprises that are expected & have this coincide with a later winter storm - Nat Gas commodity price spike; or even a total collapse/crisis in California. Quite honestly; if I wouldn't have had so many holiday commitments over the past couple of weeks & could have paid more daily attention to the tape;I probably would have went short (via puts) to about 25% of my ultimate short weighting. I agree on puts vs short sales initially; but my weighting & strategy will shift from buying puts into the strengh/rallies - to shorting into the weakness-rollover, especially on a technically endorsed basis. This thread is quite honestly; a tremendous sentiment indicator for short-term moves. It surprises me that the thread titlted into a pureplay on cheerleading of late & virtually "no one" was ringing the cash register & taking some money of the table into this latest E&P move; untill they were chided into not coming out in Monday Morning QB fashion a couple of weeks from now - "glad" they sold the pop a couple of weeks back etc ;) That no one is talking about the insider selling being done is another sign that the majority of threadsters here became blind to reality. The single most significant factor is that Q4, Q1 will be the absolute "peak" in the earnings cycle for the Independant E&P's - as crude has faded from $35 to the high $20's of late & as we are more than likely going to see a substantial retrace from the peak winter demand season drawdowns. - I envision few scenario's sectorwide; that would allow a move to a significant new high sectorwide; let alone a scenario of maintaing those highs past Q4, or Q1 reporting. ... as I said earlier; there is going to be a whole lotta people holding some pretty lofty profits all heading to the exit doors at once; very, very soon - bank on it. The strong insider selling here is an indication of that. I'd acknowledge that they are not necessarially the best market-timers; perhaps no better, or worse than the Street; but there is very significant selling imho; as insiders realize that the present confluence of events is unsustainable and indeed a - "too perfect storm". Here are just a few wake up calls: Insiders selling HEAVY ! Significant selling - substantial positions being sold; with some CFO's & VP's of exploration - key frontline people; dumping significant & even total positions in some cases. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com The Peak for E&P earnings is Q4, or Q1 reporting; the only question remaining imho; is how soon are you going to start taking profits & chips off the table & rotating to later cycle plays... There is a very, very good chance here imho; that those that may be getting a little Hoggish (vs piggish) in trying to capture all of the remaining winter weather upside potential to Nat Gas; may see rollover & a significant pullback - ala Sept 99 much sooner than they are expecting.

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