jmootx--I am also anticipating a stong rally - to at least test 2700 on COMP, and may well be higher--all that is missing in here is that, as I said before, the SOX has to print a new low sub 517 first to complete its downtrend. The SOX is the key tell for the Naz--right now at 577 it is in the process of rolling over again into (d)down of a triangle, leading very shortly to the last little leg down to about 485ish, as I see it. At that point, I think everything will be alligned to have a sharp and more enduring Rally in the semis and semiequips. That will power the NDX etc.....Also, a number of the individual tech stocks look to be close to completing their ultimate wave count Lows, so that when that occurs in enough of them, there may well be an explosive move up.....For eg. MSFT at 35-38 could well be its final Low, LSI anywhere between 14.5-16.25 same thing, INTC mid-higher 20's etc etc. My point here is that many of the semi stocks are very late in their ultimate declines from the top and that once they turn, the Naz may well reverse its spots As the SOX goes, so goes the NDX by and large.
Another thing to keep in the back of one's mind for elliott types is that it is more likely that the Mar-May drop was an ABC rather than a 5 wave impulse. The implication of this is that from the 4260 mark on the COMP on Sept1 (to line up with the NDX), all that is needed to complete the entire Bear Mkt from the March peak is another ABC--We could easily have seen that with the A part dropping to 2500ish, the B part rally to 3025ish and then the whoosh down to 2288 for the C... That is ONE count that also fits well with the symmetry of the declines using parallel lines on a log chart.
Bottom line--watch the SOX, not the COMP or the NDX. Once SOX drops below its current low of 517 it is likely in its final move down (best guess about 485ish) and THAT will likely line up with many of its components also reaching their final lows.
As much as hardly anyone thinks that the COMP/NDX will 'soon' retake their Spring peaks, I am willing to go on record that it would not surprise me from an elliott standpoint that by Mar2002 or earlier, we had double topped near 5000 on the COMP, if not somewhat higher. I am NOT forecasting that this will 'likely' occur-just that it wouldn't surprise me if it did, Don Hays (whose calls I highly value) notwithstanding. In a longer term big picture, we could simply have completed a deep Wave IV on the COMP in here, not the "Big One" with 3 downlegs (just 2 this time around).
One last point--the VIX is nyse related but the VIX.X is the proper one for the Naz---I gather that the VIX.X exceeded its Oct98 reading several days ago (I myself didn't check), indicating perhaps sufficient panic for this index. The VIX itself of course did not due to the financial and safety oriented drug stocks. If as and when the Naz gets any sort of a head of steam up, the old economy stocks, where many strategists are currently parked for safety reasons, may well be left in the dust again. |
