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Technology Stocks : NT Accounting Software (GPSI, PSQL, SOTA, TMBS)
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To: Jalali who started this subject12/31/2000 2:56:09 PM
From: michael_pdx  Read Replies (1) of 149
 
Interest rates vs TMBS?

Has anyone tried to track changes in interest rates vs changes in the price of TMBS. It seems to me that the two ought to be inversely related. As interest rates go up construction activity slows and Timberline's business probably slows. That certainly happened in 2000.

On the other hand if interest rates fall then construction often picks up and that should lead to more revenue for Timberline.

Investors have to ask themselves -- Will interest rates decline next year? Will construction activity increase? If so will Timberline's revenue and profit increase accordingly?

Or maybe prospective long term Timberline shareholders should not care. The construction industry is always cyclical. If Timberline can make modest amounts of profit when the industry is slow and more when the construction industry is booming, then the obvious time to buy this stock is when it is down. Right now the stock is priced as if we are headed for a recession and a slow down in the building industry.
Assuming that the P/E should be about 17, the current share price assumes earnings of $ .05/ quarter or $.20 per year next year. Has anyone listened to the last conference call? Did management make a prediction for next year's earnings?
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