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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 678.87

-0.3%

Dec 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: High-Tech East who wrote (65553)	1/1/2001 1:28:33 PM
From: KymarFye	of 99985

Note on COT: Recent figures for S&P futures positions reflect heavy impact of contract rollover. It might therefore be a mistake to draw major conclusions from recent fluctuations in the numbers for Commercials or, perhaps even more so, for Small Traders. All the same, I agree that the highly bearish outlook remains intact. Interestingly, according to THE BULLISH REVIEW (where I get virtually all of my "insight"), the Commercials' position on Nasdaq 100 futures roughly corresponds the the same levels seen at intermediate market bottoms (such as in May). Because there's not an extensive history of COT and the NDX, and because the position is counterintuitive (excessively net short at the bottom) and may relate to peculiarities of the Commercials approach to the contract, the BR has been wary of interpreting the situation as a valid buy signal, though it does advise shorts at least to protect against a "technical bounce."

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