Russia and Germany are considering converting a large chunk of
Russia's $14 billion debt to Germany into equity stakes in
Russian companies, which would make Germany a major shareholder
in Russian industry. The deal will represent an important move in
forging a close geopolitical partnership between Germany and
Russia. This may help Russia's revival, and Germany could emerge
as the leader of a united Europe with Russia on its side. Such a
development would significantly weaken U.S. influence in Europe
while dramatically strengthening Germany and Russia and helping
them to advance to the front stage of world geopolitics.
Analysis
Germany and Russia are forging an economic deal that, if it
succeeds, may shift the balance of European power. Werner Muller,
German economic minister, and German Gref, Russian minister of
economic development and trade, met in Berlin Dec. 12 to debate
details of a plan to exchange Russian debt for German equity in
Russian companies.
The two sides have agreed in principle to swap a large share of
Russia's $14 billion debt, The Times reported Dec. 13. One option
they are considering is giving to Germany a significantly larger
share in Gazprom, Russia's gigantic gas export monopoly.
Germany's Ruhrgas now holds 4 percent.
Obtaining several billion dollars worth of stakes in Russian
enterprises would make Germany a major shareholder in Russian
industry, giving Berlin a stronger voice in Moscow. In addition,
it would further tie Berlin's interests to economic and political
stability in Russia. Russia already supplies about 35 percent of
Germany's gas needs.
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