Cha2,
<< Since the written English language is difficult without the face to face body language which we need to judge in personal relations, may I try to help avoid a potential misunderstanding which is vital to some of us. May I take the liberty of asking if you are saying that while Dr J is not "lying", he may be overly skeptical of the time frame and the real world possibilities of the full scale adoption of an agreed, approved, fully fleshed out WCDMA? But perhaps, he is correct? Time will tell. >>
I really had to back track a batch of posts to try and figure out how someone's statement about being "blindsided" turned into mention of "lying".
I guess the question was this:
"So when IJ said wCDMA phones run hot, have battery consumption problems, and may not be ready in time for 2003, perhaps later, you assumed he was telling a lie?"
and:
"it's a surprise that wcdma appears to be ready so soon."
To which I inserted myself into the conversation ...
.. and commented on the fact that W-CDMA was pushing the envelope of available handset technology (which related to Dr. Jacobs commenting on heat and battery problems) ...
... then said:
"As for lying (IJ)... I would say absolutely not. Overly skeptical ... perhaps."..
Now as for your question
<< if you are saying that while Dr J is not "lying", he may be overly skeptical of the time frame and the real world possibilities of the full scale adoption of an agreed, approved, fully fleshed out WCDMA? But perhaps, he is correct? Time will tell. >>
I have never mentioned anything here recently about "the real world possibilities of the full scale adoption of an agreed, approved, fully fleshed out WCDMA?", other than to say that we would not be seing wide scale general deployment any too soon.
I have commented, recently and several times before about Dr. Jacobs slide that uses the term "commercial availability" (of 1xMC, of 1xEV, and W-CDMA (or as the author of the slide calls it "WCDMA"):
qualcomm.com
I'm not sure what "commercial availability" means to you but what it means to me is that infra is available and so are handsets, both capable of being deployed in a commercial launch ... even if that is a limited deployment initially.
That is not exactly "full scale adoption of an agreed, approved, fully fleshed out WCDMA?"
If you are asking when I think that a version of W-CDMA infra and handsets compliant with an IMT-2000 standard will be commercially available, I would ask you (after you refer to the first item on Dr. Jacobs slide) when you think cdma2000 1x (that is compliant with IS-2000A) will be available.
Now here is what we (think) we know:
* DoCoMo plans to launch a VERY limited commercial trial of non standard W-CDMA by the end of May 2001. They have stated that handsets capable of 384 kbps downstream and 64 kbps upstream will be available for this "launch" which is real a trial and will be used primarily for debugging.
* Both DoCoMo and J-Phone intend to take delivery of standardized W-CDMA infra for commercial launch purposes in mid 2001 and optimistically launch by year end or shortly afterwards. Some European operators are operating on a similar schedule.
* 3GPP's timetable is that vendors need to be capable of delivering standards compliant commercially deployable infra and handsets within 2 years from the date of the completion of each phase of the standard, so for UMTS 'Release 99', anything later than April 15, 2002 is LATE by 3GPP's definition, and that is the latest that "commercial availability" should occur.
* Realistically, there may be a great deal of buildout in 2002, but we are not going to see a lot of 3GSM (W-CDMA) subscribers in 2002. We' should see limited deployment, but we won't see general deployment until sometime in 2003 in Japan and maybe even later in Europe.
W-CDMA vendors and carriers seem to project confidence that schedules will be met. If they are then Dr. Jacobs was overly skeptical. If they aren't, he was not, he was justifiably skeptical.
I hope that explanation suffices.
Meantime as a Qualcomm investor (like I am) you should worry about when the IS-2000 compliant MSM 5105 chipset will ship (like I am). <g>
It might speed up the deployment of 1xRTT.
- Eric - |
