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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 244.22

+9.6%

Oct 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: GST who wrote (113880)	1/2/2001 1:30:45 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 164684

>> craig: the most compelling argument to me is, as you say a rally first, but most likely a failure at the 200 dma for most major indices << The 200 DMA is over 3500 on the Nazdog! That's over a 1000 points from here. A 1000 point rally in the Naz is surely worth putting on a trade for. I think it will take a while to work up to 3500. I'm not even looking for 3500 anytime soon--a rally to the upper channel above 2800 and approaching the 50 DMA is likely short-term, and that's about 350 points higher from here. Maybe it will be ok to put new shorts out around 2800-2850. If the Naz rallies 350 points in January I think I will have a good chance to cash out of my short-term call options. Then I will worry about raising some cash or going short until a clear trend establishes itself. I'm not even looking for a rally to the 50 DMA on my SUNW. The 50 DMA is in the low 40's and the 200 DMA is closer to 50! I will settle for 36-38 and SUNW can hit 40 and still be in a downtrend! YHOO's 50 DMA is a long ways off as well. I can make several times my money on YHOO calls without YHOO even rallying up to it's 50 DMA which is in the high 40's. That shows you just how much techs have fallen in such a short period of time. YHOO can quadruple off it's lows and still be below it's 200 DMA. >> I went home long on my short term trading acount to catch what bounce might materialize this week -- but I will be looking for selling opportunities every day << I understand your strategy, and that's fine, but I really am talking about more than a 1 or 2 day rally. The Nasdog has been down 4 months in a row. The Nasdog hasn't been up more than 2 days in a row since Sep 1. I am going on record saying that the Nasdaq is going to finish higher in January for the first time in 4 months, and it is going to have it's first 3 day winning streak in over 4 months. (last time was 08-28 thru 09-01)

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