Some predictions for 2001, and 5 "50% gains" potentials from my cranium:
(this message cc'ed to Trader J's board only)
- A light recession in 2001 will signal some alarms, but will not turn out to be the doom and gloom that media will portray it to be.
- Alternative fuel sources (hydrogen fuel cells, etc etc) still won't have signifigant market penetration on the auto market.
- Oil costs will hover around the $22-30 dollar level, and generally will not be a front page item.
- Israel vs. Palestine will still be unresolved.
- The summer this year will be the hottest ever. With this will come rather profound problems concerning drought, power (air conditioning), and other issues.
- Power troubles in California will continue to plague the state. Political games being played will not help resolve the issue.
- Philadelphia will not win the super bowl. (sorry Eagles fans..)
- 1.8GHz chips for US$400 at the end of 2001.
It will be the year of biotechnology. Lets face it, PC tech is dead.. semiconductors are in decline, networking is getting to be saturated, optical is past discovered.. this leaves biotechnology, which is still currently untrusted, and undiscovered.
General market predictions:
At the end of 2001:
===================
^IXIC: 2700.
QQQ/^NDX: 56/2250 (yes, this implies that the large cappers will get hit more than the overall market).
^DJX: 10400. (going nowhere)
^SPX: 1360.
^IXB: 1450.
-----------------------------------------
5 specific stocks that should appreciate 50% over the year:
1. CEGE. Strongest balance sheet in the biotechnology sector compared to its market cap; 280 million cash, 8.95 million shares of ABGX. Solid results in clinical trials of GVAX product candidate. Potential future revenue windfall assuming TKTX wins lawsuit versus AMGN in future. Ended 2000 at 22 13/16.
2. CORR. Integrilin is worth more than what the stock is trading for currently. Suspect that current value of other product candidates are not factored in the stock; results of Phase II trials in Cromafiban should prove to be a strong determinant of stock price over 2001. Ended 2000 at 35 3/16.
3. INCY. Genomics rush is over. What's left is proteinomics, and INCY has the technological lead in this field. Celera has the CEO with the bigger mouth, but INCY has the better business. Both companies are loaded up with cash, and they both should consolidate their pure-play sector. Ended 2000 at 24 7/8.
4. BSQR. Embedded systems. PALM, HAND, RIMM are over-valued, and BSQR is a cheap play on Windows CE. Stock got crushed with tax loss selling. Top line, bottom line growth are very steady, profitable company, and 40% of the company's market cap is cash. Ended 2000 at 6.
5. QTRN. Contract research organization, the biggest one out there.. the bio industry is flush with cash, and the CRO's should be able to take advantage of the influx of research money. QTRN is no exception. A side benefit is that QTRN owns 35 million shares of HLTH (consistutes about 10% of its current market cap), and if HLTH ever turns out to be anything, QTRN stands to make a fortune. Otherwise they are doing an okay job in turning around their operations to restore themselves back to positive operating cash flow. Very strong balance sheet here. Ended 2000 at 20 15/16.
NOTE: My money is where my mouth is. I'm long shares in all the companies above except QTRN. Obviously, any of these positions can change at any time. |
