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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Sam who wrote (2797)	1/2/2001 11:48:50 AM
From: Robert Douglas	of 3536

Bear Stearn's comment on NAPM. <<This level of index, if sustained, is consistent with real GDP growth of around 1/2%. According to the NAPM, a reading below 42.4 on the overall index is consistent with recession in the overall economy... New orders fell nearly 6 1/2 points to 42, which is the weakest reading since February 1991 and production dropped more than seven points to its lowest level since March 1991... The odds of an intermeeting rate cut are now well above 50% in our opinion and any such move is likely to take place on or before January 12, and could come as early as January 5 following the employment report.>>

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