Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Tommaso who wrote (83218)	1/2/2001 12:38:05 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Tomasso... there were many "gas" names on that insider selling list But, sure some small caps could go up in value due to multiple expansion - if; they are shoring up their balance sheets via this windfall and show good production growth. But the FUNDAMENTAL question you all have to ask yourself; is - will Q4 and/or Q1 reporting (100 short days max) be the peak of cfps & eps for these companies ? - and if so; why would the Street pay more for these companies later; than they are now into declining sequential earnings reporting ... ? - especially once TECH does turn around & all the MO-MO money exits here (another factor here that no one is seeing)and as we exit Winter and all the accompanying news & media attention due to the weather & it's fundamental upward pressure/support on Nat Gas prices are no longer there ? I think the Majors & Integrates; some refiners and some "select" small caps - do have good upside even as the Nat Gas mo-mo leaders pullback... but, it's not throw a dart territory there - far from it and again; it's the how soft is soft; question... Untill we know: "How soft - is soft" - the risk vs reward meter is heavilly tilted toward risk...and bodes for profit taking on strength - especially when the upside moves are from sector rotation & mo-mo money coming in... heed that insider selling and anytime anyone took profits & sold into the arrival of mo-mo money during late cycles of the oilpatch - they did well - especially when one factors in a weakening US economy. Learn from history, or be destined to repeat it.... it's that simple. The same mistakes are being made by the same people - time & time again.... 100 days or less and counting to the absolute peak in cfps & eps for the vast majority of E&P's. tic toc & that very narrow exit door is going to be very crowded...soon, very soon (VBG) and there's going to be some "Elephant Hunters" with awfully big "short-selling" Elephant Guns sitting with both barrels aimed at the exits right outside that door...alot of threadsters here will be caught in the soon to be - "E&P Killing Fields"...

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