Mr. Pink, what about shorting some fine (sub-)mortgage lenders?
Tuesday January 2, 12:28 pm Eastern Time
Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Up
NEW YORK (Reuters) - More homeowners paid their mortgages late and more homes went into foreclosure in the third quarter of 2000 than in the same period of 1999, a mortgage banker trade group said on Tuesday, saying the growth was expected, partly because of the slowing U.S. economy.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) said the delinquency rate for loans on one- to four-unit residential properties rose 22 basis points -- 22/100 of a percentage point -- to 4.04 percent during the third quarter, in its latest National Delinquency Survey.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure was started during the quarter rose 5 basis points to 0.31 percent, and the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the
end of the quarter dropped 1 basis point to 0.84 percent.
``The increase in the delinquency rate was expected,'' said Douglas G. Duncan, MBA's chief economist. ``This is a continuation of the maturing of loans originated during the period from 1997 through 1999, which are moving toward their peak delinquency years. Another factor is the slowing of the economy in the third quarter.''
It was the second consecutive quarterly rise in delinquencies. After falling 71 basis points from the first quarter of 1998 through the first quarter of 2000, the delinquency rate in the past two quarters has increased by 32 basis points.
The third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was a weaker-than-expected 2.2 percent, and employment numbers also became weaker during the quarter.
Duncan said slowing income growth and rising unemployment will combine with the aging loan portfolio to increase delinquency rates. But, he added, the rise may be tempered if, as anticipated, the Federal Reserve begins easing interest rates.
Delinquencies increased in each of three loan categories. The percentage of loans 30 days past due rose 16 basis points to 2.84 percent. Loans 60 days past due increased 4 basis points to 0.64 percent, while the percentage of loans 90 days or more past due rose 2 basis points to 0.56 percent.
The delinquency rate also increased for each of the three loan types during the quarter. The rate for conventional loans was 2.55 percent, up 13 basis points from the previous quarter, and the rates for FHA and VA loans were 9.04 percent and 6.80 percent -- up 31 and 13 basis points, respectively.
On a smaller sample of loans, the survey found that the delinquency rate for both fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) increased in the third quarter. The rate rose 21 basis points to 3.16 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and jumped 20 basis points to 5.30 percent for ARMs.
The increase in foreclosures started during the third quarter pushed that rate up to its highest level since the first quarter of 1999 when it was 0.32 percent.
The inventory of loans in foreclosure at the end of the quarter varied by loan type. The percentage of conventional loans in foreclosure increased 2 basis points to 0.59 percent. The percentage of FHA loans in foreclosure decreased 11 basis points to 1.69 percent, and the percentage of VA loans in foreclosure fell 12 basis points to 1.32 percent.
The mortgage banker group has conducted its delinquency survey since 1953, calling it the most comprehensive mortgage delinquency survey in the country. It covers more than 25 million loans on one- to four-unit residential properties, representing more than half of all ``first-lien'' residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States. Loans surveyed were reported by approximately 200 lenders, including mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and life insurance companies. |
