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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: lurqer who wrote (27920)1/2/2001 3:37:16 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
As I've mentioned before I believe we're in a bear correction (as opposed to a secular bear). The primary difference between the two is duration. When I think of bear corrections, I think of something lasting 18 to 30 months. Many think the current correction as starting in March of '00. And measure the bear by the fall in the Naz - more than 50%. This "peak-to-trough" technique measures the severity of the bear, but says nothing regarding its duration. Conceptually a bear correction is a "pause " in the secular bullish uptrend. Hence the "proper" way to measure a correction is how long you have "treaded water" or "marked time". Since we've fallen to numbers on the Naz that were experienced in the spring of '99, we're (by this measure) already some 20 months (or as the Naz falls - more) into the correction. Which by the afore mentioned criterion means (Bad News) we could still have 10 months to go, or (Good News) we could end any time.

'Course, we could go lower and "eat up" those 10 months by getting to the Naz's value down to what it was 30 months ago (not the desirable resolution). It is in the nature of markets that "only the strong survive", so to all

Good Luck!

p.s. Yes Venkie it does "feel" like a bottom. My only question is "Does Merrill (and other Houses) want to accumulate more?"

lurqer
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