Edge to EDGE
>> Warnings about GPRS and WAP Hype - Study
December 21, 2000
cellular.co.za
European wireless operators are deploying faster wireless General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), but like Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), the the service is misunderstood, overhyped and is unlikely to achieve widespread acceptance, a new study predicts.
"WAP and GPRS represent major steps forward in cellular technology," a new study by Aberdeen Group says. "Their failure lies in the gross mismatch between reality and customer expectations. This situation cannot continue as the (wireless) industry, once saluted for its visionary capacity and slick delivery, now lurches from one problem to the next."
The study, Cutting EDGE: The 3G Alternative, notes that "customer expectations of streaming video and exotic applications (via GPRS) are wildly off the mark." Among the reasons for that is, despite fast GPRS speeds in theory, actual speeds of live networks are estimated to be only 14Kbps to 28Kbps.
"For subscribers accustomed to high-speed, fixed-wire Internet access, these transmission speeds are intolerable, even if GPRS is 'always on,'" the study notes. "Combined with the scarcity of compatible handsets and inflated performance expectations, these low transmission speeds put GPRS at an all-but-insurmountable disadvantage from the outset."
The study suggests that GPRS will disappoint the industry in the same way as WAP did, which was launched with soaring expectations that have yet to be met.
"WAP (has) less than two percent penetration and lower than 30 percent repeat users -- hardly a commercial success," the study notes. The study concludes that GPRS is unlikely to reach 10 percent user penetration and it won't have much impact on existing low usage of the wireless Internet.
Instead, technology using Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE), will quickly supplant GPRS, the study predicts. EDGE is expected to begin deployment in the third quarter of 2001, is another interim technology on the way to 3G and supports speeds as high as 380Kbps.
Making matters worse for GPRS, major phone vendors such as Ericsson and Motorola have not announced many GPRS phones, the study says. It notes, however, that handset availability also is an issue for EDGE.
As for WAP, the study notes its "underwhelming" acceptance in Europe, where the greatest hope was held for it.
"The subscriber numbers (in Europe) are underwhelming, service offerings are spotty, and the lack of handset availability (initially, at least) has worked to undermine the launch," the report notes. "One explicit lesson (to operators) was the importance of ensuring the simultaneous launch of WAP infrastructure, handsets and applications."
The report also notes that operators could have done a better job of explaining to users the nature of WAP access. Specifically, users were led to believe that the wireless Net was "the Internet made mobile" when, in fact, it was a far more truncated experience.
"WAP's failure has created a high degree of subscriber skepticism regarding wireless data," the report notes.
Wireless operators would do well to learn from the success of NTT DoCoMo's i-mode, the study says. For one thing, DoCoMo supported, but didn't control, implementation, which led to greater development. This reflect's DoCoMo's understanding of the difference between operating a voice service and a data service, the study notes <<
- Eric - |
