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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 281.58-3.6%Jan 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (41169)1/2/2001 8:31:14 PM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
I'd like to hear why you prefer the 30s.

Here's my two cents.

1) AMAT is trading at 40 for all intents and purposes.

2) AMAT, NVLS, LRCX and KLAC are likely to report very good earnings, but the the response from the street since July has ben to sell into the a rally. (any rally)

3) From a mathematical standpoint the 30's cost more and if this Nasdaq volatility and sell into the rally attitude continues the 30's will return to you most of your investment even if AMAT never breeches 50 in the next two years.

4) If the 30's cost $1500.00 and the 50's cost $700.00, AMAT will have to hit 60 for even a small profit. A single option that works is more useful than a hundred that fail.

5) Never pay attention to what everyone else is buying. The herd is just as likely to run off a cliff in the name of group togetherness.

In the past few weeks I have seen several investors jump on the Dell 20's and the LSI 25's and the INTC 40's. In talking with them I heard things like, This has got to be a bottom. This is a two year low for Dell. Its got to go up from here. But in view of the negative press that DELL, CPQ, and GTW have been getting the recovery will take longer than anticipated.

In this irrational market AMAT could just as easily hit the 30 to 35 range as it could the 55 to 60 range. Be careful in what you ask for You might just get it.

Regards, Jerome
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