>> In an emergency environment AG would cut this week, and cut hard -- but a recession is not an emergency....Nor I do not think this is an "emergency" in the same way as it was when the entire global financial system was at risk a couple of years ago. This is the end of a bubble -- not something AG is likely to mourn. <<
Well look at what happened after the bubble popped in 1929! Look at the terrible morass facing Japan 11 years after their market crashed! If Greenspan doesn't do something soon I think this will be far more than a recession on our hands. He is the one who let the bubble occur, he should be the one to try to save us from the aftermath. My argument for the last few years was that he was an idiot for getting us into a no-win situation to begin with.
Even though I think we face dire consequences from Mr Greenspan's ineptitude, I firmly believe that there is ALWAYS an attempt by the bulls to make everything right again, and that's how you get powerful counter-trend rallies.
In the end GST, I think I have the same outlook as you and Fowler do. I just think we disagree on how soon we get there. You think we should go straight down 80% without any sort of rally in between. I think we should have a rally for a couple of months or more, and then go down even more later. A week ago it appeared that maybe it was possibly going to go my way. Late last week and early this week it looks like your scenario is coming to pass. Later this week or next week? Who knows what will happen. That's what makes this fun.
Just remember, it's always darkest before dawn. Remember the last time we had a sharp rally to 3000? It came after a day when INTC and MOT warned and the election was still a disaster and it seemed like war was going to break out and the world was coming to an end. That's what it sounds like now as well. 40% of all warnings happen in the first week of January, Greenspan isn't going to react fast enough, CSCO is going to warn, INTC didn't lower numbers enough, no one is ever going to buy a PC again, mutual fund redemptions are on the way, margin calls, were headed for a hard landing, we are going to start a recession this quarter, the dollar is going to cave, etc etc etc.
A lot of negativity built into prices here. |
