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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 487.71-0.1%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Bob Davis who wrote (54804)1/2/2001 9:11:36 PM
From: Dave  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
MSFT corrected back toward its economic value, in a move that is sometimes described as a "reversion to the mean."

I would accept that if we weren't in the process of violently deflating a bubble. When bubbles deflate, overvalued bubble equities don't "revert to the mean." They invariably overshoot their fair value and become undervalued.

Watch for a MSFT share price in the teens this year or next. If it breaks below $10/share, I might even buy some. MSFT has $5.89/share in current assets, and has annual operating earnings of about $2.05/share. $10/share would be equal to cash plus 2x earnings. If you think that is absurdly low, you should go buy some AAPL, which is selling for that right now.

Dave
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