| The test of 52 week low as Ovetus pointed out is important to hold but the internals of the markets are now refusing to budge on the down side look at SOX even OEX today, in my opinion the analysts are way out in their read of economy, it was not the manufacturing that is driving this market at the first place, it was the service economy and sooner than later we shall see that manufacturing slow down has little impact on revised corporate earnings.. it is a very long wait but the trap to be caught is being set very nicely i will not be surprised to see the easing in bigger chunks and sooner, even AG would be surprised by the reaction, he knows it well that all this surplus can evaporate if market that is the barometer of the economy is left to the whims of 1/4 or 1/2 percent monetary policy.. if he wants Bush not to cut the taxes he needs to show economy moving along fine with asset inflation so fast deflated, he has little to worry about as inflation is out of the window,. the surpluses are threatened and we need real interest rates to move lower faster the relationship between employment and inflation with today's NAPM is definitely on the side of fed Governors who are supply-siders, we can have a low unemployment with NAPM number as low as 1991 pre-recession, the argument which AG has to satisfy is that if employment and inflation relationship is broken why the real rates should remain so high.. I see market looking forward and anticipating all this the long bond is one good example of that, I would think that we will see some panic but this is in my opinion great level.. I will like to see 2282 being respected if not 1247 will on SPX but I am looking to make some money from these small scalping on short side, tonight I could not buy any puts the SPX hit 1276.2 and was at 1282 a resepectable support for me..I am trying to bring my overall average of the portfolio that is strictly connected with NAZ lower nad this is my ultimatye objective.. wishful thinking but that is how I am playing it.. the logic of the sell is difficult to hold and we shall see our levels soon..fwiw |
