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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 233.63

-3.0%

Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41240)	1/3/2001 1:59:06 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Brian, Thanks for the comments. I am considering buying into AMAT quite a bit more, on weakness, and want to try to address things that could go wrong, the ones I know about at least like this Moore's Law issue. I plan to hold for a year at least if I buy in. If you or anyone else is aware of other pitfalls in buying AMAT in the 30's, please mention it. I am not concerned about overall market risk at these levels, and am fairly confident about the management (just based on past performance), and think that chip demand will continue such that any decline in AMAT orders will not last very long. An interesting way to look at AMAT here is the PEG computed using the 5 year earnings growth estimate, using data published by Yahoo "Research". The numbers are: PEG = (39.5/2.40)/25 = .66 vs. 1.92 for the S&P (S&P PEG computed using next year's earnings growth estimate). Per this looks like a good buy relative to the S&P, but of course this is a very simplistic analysis. John

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