Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, January 2nd, 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 377.1 Million
SPX Short- URSA 257.1 Million
NDX Long - OTC 1,643` BILLION**new 52 week low**
NDX Short- Arktos 93.7 Million
XAU Precious Metals 36.2 Million
Banking 77.1 Million
Biotechnology 511 Million
Money Market 1,478 BILLION
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 49.8 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 31.4 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 100.0 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 37.1 Million
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Like a lumberjack with a sharpened ax, you keep chopping away at the tree and eventually the tree goes >>>>>>> timber...... DOWN
We stick to our guns, stay short and get rewarded and lock in profit.
SPX and SPH GAP FILLED... The 30 minute chart SPH March Futures fills the entire gap at SPH 1,290 - 1,300:
charts-d.quote.com:443/978501072100?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=CME:SP01H&Interval=30&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0
We call these moves in advance not ex post facto..... The money got hot and bothered long after 5 up days (4 out of 5 in NAZ)in a row and now it gets literally wiped out completely in 2 days....
But hope springs eternal... Bulls now have the excuse to run it higher again and tomorrow is set up well for that magic second trading day of the year for da bullz.
Also, TRIN, a measure of the short term trading index is at triple oversold levels and closed with a reading of TRIN 2.53 the 60 minute chart on TRIN:
charts-d.quote.com:443/978501528970?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:TRIN&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=RSI&Param1=5&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0
The anchors weighing against the bullz tomorrow is BKX, DRG and UTIL.
BKX closed at BKX 888.63 down another 13 points and tomorrow we find if it is a one day false break of BKX 898 or we in fact go test this BKX 860 support I have been talking about.
DRG is simple profit taking for the new year from overbloated levels. Down 1.4% This index needs to be closely monitored as it far outperformed the market in 2,000> DRG 431 is good support - 10 points below todays close of DRG 441.
UTIL got whaacked 3.3% and off the highs from its lofty perch. UTIL had its first close below UTIL 400 in 6 trading days. It closed at UTIL 398.73 down 13 1/2 points.
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Now for Rydex:
Over 1 Billion Dollars in Total Assets has now been shaved off of Rydex Long OTC Fund in less than 1 month. The money has either gone to money heaven, switched into "greener pastures" like sector funds or simply cashed out and said "no mas". This indicator alone suggests we are near a short term low.
All we need now is Barton Biggs or Byron Wien from MSDW to get on CNBC and go back to their Bearish ways for the final au contrare reversal back long. Recall these "experts" made the Bullish call and said we had a 25% rally coming in Nazdaq on December 11th when COMP closed at 3,015 over the coming 4 to 6 weeks. To give these jokers to the left of me the benefit of the doubt we take the lower close on Friday December 8th when COMP closed at COMP 2,917 before they came on CNBC monday mid-day. Today COMP closed at COMP 2,292. We come up with one helluva return. DOWN 21.5%.
Now here is the joke of it all: Right now, over the next 4 to 6 weeks we are going to have a 25% move higher intraday from these levels COMP 2,292 and you know where that gets us? COMP 2,865. Underneath Biggs and Wiens breakeven levels. TAKE IT TO THE BANK.
Oops got sidetracked. My dander is showing.
SPX Short URSA is one day from setting new 52 week lows in total assets. It would be poetic if tomorrow we saw capitulation in SPX and finish near session lows. If this happens, I will get my arse LONG in the last 15 to 30 minutes prior to close of trading in Rydex.
Banking Index finally let some "hot air" out of the total assets balloon. One more down day and a close near BKX 860 level, if it materializes, will see TA dip below 60 Million.
If this happens, all systems and lights will turn green on the LONG SIDE for the AUTOBAHN EXPRESSWAY get your foot on the accelerator and buy it up.
SPX Long TITAN under 50 million... this is near bottom area for the reversal.
If Money Market levels get above 1.6 million tomorrow after the bell it will reinforce LONG. Again, for the market to do our bidding we want more capitulation into the last hour of trading for the full flush down the toilet. Then its LONG BABY LONG for the hard bounce.
XAU did exactly what we wanted. A pullback from well off the highs but a higher close from Friday. A bonus is that Total Assets decreased 3.6 million on an up day. What are they smokin? XAU is one of the few areas of refuge right now and assets are decreasing. LOL. XAU closed up 37 cents to close at XAU 51.78 up .78%. Intraday high was XAU 53.08. This is the third time XAU has put the jackhammmer to XAU 53 brickwall resistance level. The other 2 times was 12/20 (XAU 53.13) and 12/21 (XAU 53.21). Recall XAU closed at a recent high XAU 53.11 on December 20th. I got out of XAU 1 day later when XAU closed at XAU 52.26. No opportunity cost lost here as I have made hay big time getting Long NDX OTC 1 day then staying Short SPX URSA until todays close.
Get ready for the rocket launch in XAU.
In MITA 5,702 I mentioned this XAU 53-55 resistance would be tough to get thru but We are ready to mount that assault:
The Backtest:
...<XAU up another 4.3% +... to close at XAU 53.13 up 2.20. The highest one day close since September 13th. This area XAU 53-55 zone is a brick wall it will be tough banging thru.
Gona need a jackhammer because it is going to need several assaults to get break thru to the other side>....
I see gold bullion up $1.50 to $269.50 overseas now from New York close. Lets bring on the yelllow metal heyday with XAU leading the way.
Best Regards, J.T. |
