Re: But I don't think the US Jewish community will take too kindly to a reshifting of long-standing US support for Israel.
And the US christian communit, which provides the power base of the Republican party also would not permit a further distancing of US support for Israel in favor of some US-Saudi alliance.
Well... the way I see it is not so much the US brusquely distancing itself from Israel as the latter getting closer to both Russia and Western Europe.... Of course, I expect the forthcoming Bush Administration to have an active share in such a geopolitical shift. Under the current Clinton Administration, the blame (for the stalemated Middle East peace process) is routinely pinned on Yasser Arafat and the PLO. Clinton and his Jewish advisers have always boasted about the Israelis' "amazing" goodwill in "reaching out" to the Palestinians.... And as their peace proposals have kept failing time and again, Clinton always came out with yet another rebuke on those stubborn Palestinians. I expect Bush's Middle East team to work in a more balanced way on that issue --perhaps even as far as for the US to vote with the UN assembly against Israel....
Now, from the Israeli perspective, it's a well-known fact that the EU has always felt upset about being marooned in the Middle East's major negotiations. European leaders keep complaining about Europe's overall low-profile on the diplomatic scene. But there again, times have changed and I'd point out three clues about that:
--During his last visit in Israel, French (Socialist) PM Lionel Jospin bluntly took sides with Israel when he called Hezbollah a "terrorist outfit";
-- EU Commissioner at large Javier Solana was granted an observer role in Charm el Sheik;
-- French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine met with Ehud Barak a couple of weeks ago...
Hence Israel's bargaining chip with Europe: stand by us and we'll help you raise your geopolitical profile...
As for Russia, I guess the cornerstone was the phone call between Barak and Arafat while the latter met with Putin in the Kremlin --not to mention Ivanov's trip to Israel. All in all, I think both the rapprochement between Israel and Russia and between Russia and Europe are unquestionable whereas a warmer relationship between Israel and (Catholic) Europe might be further down the road --with Turkey as the wildcard.
Now, as regards the US updating their Middle East alliances, I don't think that it's a matter of Saudi Arabia only: political stability in Egypt and Jordan is a major concern, the rise of Iran as a key Central Asian power broker is another. Obviously, the US's Jewish lobby will do anything to prevent the US from dismissing Israel as their foremost ally in the region, but what can they do about Israel distancing itself from its long-standing sponsor? I think most observers have not gauged yet the irrationality factor brought about by Ariel Sharon and his lunatic fringe....
As to the Christian lobby I'm afraid they could as easily turn against Israel as they have stood by it so far... For one thing, Catholics will align themselves with the Pope --and the Pope supports a multi-denominational Jerusalem....
Gus. |
