VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Boplicity who wrote (27738)	1/3/2001 10:08:03 AM
From: larry	Read Replies (3) of 65232

In the first half of the year, Nasdaq will test 1800, which puts it around 30% down from the close of 2000. The market will surprise people by going down more also because there is too much bullishness among investors and analysts who believe that the worst is over, and begin to focus on 20% or more yearly return. We will see Nasdaq pushing 3000 later this year but we will finish the year around 2700-2800. The bubble is burst and it will take tens of years for Nasdaq to make new high, if ever. By counting investment gains toward bottom and top line growth will come back and haunt big firms (INTC, CSCO, MSFT etc). Seeing their stock options going to the toilet will force these companies to raise employee salary (ala LU giving employee a 10% pay raise in 2001), thus suppressing bottom line growth further. CSCO and MSFT will both go down to the 20s (or at least test) within the next two years. larry!

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