Part Two
Assuming you have some interest in investing, if you have any other questions I can help you with
I appreciate your offer - and I am sure that it is well-intentioned - but anyone whose portfolio takes a hit of +25% in less than 6 weeks should be a shade wary of feeling qualified to offer investment advice, IMHO.
However, let me offer you some advice: I believe that you have posted that the bulk of your investment experience has been over 5 years or so. I am younger than you are and have been "retired" for several years - and I have been in the markets considerably longer than you have. Achieving financial independence, at a relatively young age, is something that few succeed in doing. But when you get to that point, look at diversifying somewhat - by all means allocate a portion of your funds to "gorillas" and the like but recognize that if you are successful in identifying such companies, it will not take a substantial investment to achieve gargantuan returns. But in the meantime, the bulk of your funds will be reasonably secure - and you will not jeopardize your financial security and peace of mind. Bruce Brown has an interesting post regarding the relative performance of his non-tech portfolio during this period.
Go back and read some of the comments by Paul Senior on your thread some time back. He was "driven away" as have others who have sought to offer counsel in this regard. The strength of your thread is in the substantive discussion about stocks - the weakness is in its inability to incorporate the realities of investing.
Do you recall posting something relatively recently to the effect that you have now learned the value of portfolio management? With all due respect, the fact that it took a severe market decline to teach you that lesson, is indicative of your naivete when it comes to the fundamentals of investing. I don't know to what extent your "staying power" and that of your wife has been tested by this decline - certainly there are postings on your thread that seem to suggest that others are going through a lot of pain.
The question that you and others in the same boat have to ask yourselves is whether you are likely to throw in the towel - or at the least undergo a lot of trauma - if your portfolio values decline another 50% from where it is today before we bottom. Remember with the high beta/high PE stocks that you own, a 500 point decline in the Composite, from where we are, will probably have that effect or close to it.
I never doubted for a moment that the gorilla thread would have its comeuppance - it was a matter of time. Some on your thread have been candid enough to acknowledge that it was a combination of arrogance and greed that caused them to see their portfolios whittle away. I have yet to see you acknowledge that - perhaps you do, in your heart of hearts, and if so that is good. There is a big difference in saying that one is in it for the long haul when we are in a strong uptrend and maintaining that nonchalant attitude when portfolio values have been sliced by more than 50%.
Oh - while I am at it - forget about wanting to find little boxes to fit all of life's intricacies! Widen your market related reading beyond Moore - check out Fosback's "Stock Market Logic" and since you have displayed a passing interest in the technical aspects of the markets, find some of Justin Mamis' works.
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I prefer communicating through public postings - except when there is something of a sensitive nature.
Prosperous Investing - now when I say that I mean it literally unlike when you say it!
jambo-bwana (in more of the "builder" vs "destroyer" role -g-) |
