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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (37451)1/3/2001 11:47:21 AM
From: mtnlady  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
"What's your thinking about Q4 and what are the revenue estimates?"

Mike, historically Q4 has always been Siebel's strongest. However, I don't know which way they will play it. Blow out the numbers or hold back revenue to make sure they make the next 2-3 quarters will the economic slow down in front of us. My guess (purely a guess mind you) is that they will 'respectfully' beat the numbers but defer more revenue for next year. The last thing Siebel wants to do is be forced to lower forcasts or worse yet.. miss a number (highly doubtful). One thing to keep in mind though. CRM is not a 'mission' critical product (no matter what the vendors tell you!). If the economy really goes into the sh*t can CRM projects will get delayed. On the plus side Siebel totally owns this market now - outside of a few niches in help desk etc.. AND (!) they should be really going like gang busters in Europe this year (note: Vantive/Peoplesoft have always had a strong European presence as well so they may also benefit from a strong European sector). Funny how things work out. Wasn't it just last quarter that Intel and others blamed their shortfalls on a weak Europe and in 2001 Europes recovery may help keep the US from sliding into a recession.
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