Jay, late last year, I suggested that the "year end rally/early January rally" will get the semis to a sharp 50% gain from their recent lows, I think we are getting most of this here. Before I can decide if much better prices might be out there later this quarter, I'll have to see the nature of the next retrenchment. I need to see INTC above $38 or so and AMD above $22 to become bullish on the sector. I already sold AMAT and NVLS and am looking to sell CYMI and VECO, I was hoping to get $32 or so on CYMI, but it is not getting there today, for VECO I really had $50, so the take off is not that uniform. AMAT sure looks good here, but it is also an area of major resistance and jumping here might mean a whipsaw. Give me a bottom in the BTB series (like a rise to 1.18 from the current 1.12) and I will turn bullish on the sector. If the BTB series continues down and to under 1.00, I think that we still might be able to get AMAT at $25 and CYMI at $16 or so my target lows for the cycel (well, CYMI already reached this level in this cycle).
Zeev
In edit, I just took BRCM out at $110-5/8 another $20 plus on this one today, what a country...Also took off IDPH at $186.5 (for $27 gain, covering all this morning loss and then some), as wll as BRCD here at $89.5 for another $10. I am probably going to go back down to 50% cash by the end of the day, too many profits to take... |
