Capital expenditures for foundry business to stagnate in 2001, says analyst
By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(01/03/01 15:15 p.m. EST)
TAIPEI, Taiwan -- It could be a tough year in the silicon foundry business for vendors and semiconductor equipment makers alike.
The worldwide silicon foundry industry is projected to increase by 20% in 2001, but capital expenditures for this segment will show little or no growth next year, said Dan Heyler, who tracks the industry for Merrill Lynch Taiwan Ltd., in Taipei.
In total, the capital expenditures for the silicon foundry industry will grow only 1% this year, from $10.29 billion in 2000, to $10.4 billion in 2001, Heyler said.
In comparison, capital expenditures in this segment grew a staggering 155% in 2000 over 1999, Heyler said.
"We're looking at flat growth in the foundry industry in terms of capital expenditures," he said. "We're seeing less 8-inch capacity. In fact, 8-inch net additions [in terms of wafer fabs] is declining."
The disclosure follows some other ominous signs in the business. After experiencing a period of wild demand, major silicon foundry vendors are now facing a major slowdown. (see Dec. 20 story ).
A downturn in the PC, communications, and consumer markets is causing a slowdown among chip makers--most of which have recently lowered their sales and profits forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2000.
This, in turn, is having a ripple effect on the silicon foundry players. The "Big 3" vendors in Asia--including Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC), and Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corp.--have separately reported a slowdown in their respective businesses.
As a result, most analysts are cautiously optimistic about the industry. Semico Research Corp. of Phoenix, for example, projected the silicon foundry business would grow 18% to 20% in 2001. (see Dec. 21 story ).
Merrill Lynch's Heyler projects that the worldwide foundry industry will grow at about 20% in 2001. "In the fourth quarter of 2000, we began to see a slowdown in the PC-oriented sector in the foundry business," he said. "Now, it's across the board. We are seeing a slowdown in communications and consumer sectors as well."
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