Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (1647)	1/3/2001 10:56:40 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Ron, I will try to restart this discussion next week as I am sleepy and very busy until early next week. I enjoy sparring with you though. In short, what I want (yawn) to say is that essentially their is still a lot of moral hazard in the derivative trading and lending practices (if it ain't tech, it will be real estate) of US Financial Institutions. This has already been realized by foreigners but gets conveniently hidden in the US. If this bubble burst had been in any other country (Indonesia, Malaysia, etc), the IMF would have prescribed a healthy dose of 50% interest rates and economic depression to weed out the excesses. While I obviously won't go so far to say that the US is Indonesia, I will say that we could be in for some STAGFLATION and massive dollar depreciaion due to old Uncle Greenie's free-flowing money presses. Worst of all the dollar's loss in confidence as THE Reserve currency coupled with the incredibly low savings rate here, could give us some big problems. At the very least, we are in for a Japan-like scenario very slow growth for the next 10 years.

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