I think we'll see selling of techs into any further rallies. Some selling has been overdone (baby out with bathwater in a few places in techs so some of those new buys
may stick--but mostly you'll see the bluest of the blues
like ORCL, CSCO, rally and then sell back some.)
1) People are scared sh**tless of techs
2) There will be no earnings impact 1st or second quarter from any lower interest rates on techs--financials yes,
big corporate borrowers of debt yes, manufacturing in some
cases yes, but this will not measureably change a recess in
profits in techland next six months IMHO.
So, I see limited rally in techland then its back to playing
defense with utilities, energy, financials, and drugs.
3) Re-read number 1.
The firms on wallstreet that sold all the energy guys
including us down the tubes either have impure motives,
are plain stupid, or have impure motives, or have impure
motives, or have impure motives......sorry I got the real
reason stuck into my keyboard.
As McArthur and Arnold S. have said, we'll be back!
I think oil will stay at $25, gas will basically run out
and the price will stay high, California will totter on the
very edge of collapse but won't as the cold weather and no
heat will temporarily cause them all to lose interest in drugs and they will then see the light, pay up to keep their
utilities solvent, and decide that even if they build new
power plants it won't be so bad after all, because they'll
be back on drugs and oblivious to the NIMBY thing since they
can't see them while hallucinating, but in warmth.
I do agree its not in the best interest of the gas industry
to have these $10/mmbtu prices or higher because it hurts
us longer term, but I think we will now end up breaking
perhaps even $12 gas sometime in mid FEB. I look for another humdinger of an ARCTIC cold snap after January 15th
based solely upon my previous experience in these kinds
of winters......We usually have the coldest weather between
Dec. 25th and the 1st of Jan. and again between Jan 15 and
Jan 25th.
I see a week in there where we may get a 250-300 draw
on the AGA when all the schools and factories are open.
There's so much negative sentiment and unbelief by the
public and wall street and some special idiots on a few
of the energy boards, I take it as a great contrary sentiment indicator, and think we still have a nice wall
of worry to climb sector wide. Great fundamentals and
negative sentiment--what more can you ask for?
Truth |
