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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: CpsOmis who wrote (83402)1/4/2001 1:47:57 AM
From: upanddown  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
Cosmo

"The American Gas Association (AGA) storage report yesterday of the largest withdrawal so far this winter seemed to confirm that outlook. The AGA reported a massive 209 Bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage last week, leaving only 1.7 Tcf left for the bulk of the winter heating season. Total working gas levels are 558 Bcf, or 24%, below the five-year average and storage in the Eastern Consuming region is only 56% full. SSB's models now indicate that if the remainder of this winter matches the 10-year average, then storage levels at the end of March will approach 675 Bcf. "If January through March is more than 4.5% colder than the 10-year average, then withdrawals are likely to test the 500 Bcf physical limitation on overall storage levels toward the end of this winter," the analysts said, echoing recent comments by many other market observers."

Very confusing...they can't be talking about going from 1.7T to 675B. That is little more than 1T for the remaining 13 weeks of winter. They must be including the 500B of system fill in the 675B so they are saying 175B in terms of the AGA working gas number or 0 AGA working gas if temps are 4.5% below normal. That makes more sense. No way we wind up with 675B working gas unless we have an immediate end of winter. Previous discussions last year seemed to establish that the AGA number is available gas and does not include system fill. Anyone know for sure?

John
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