Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, January 3rd 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 456.1 Million
SPX Short- URSA 213.7 Million**new 52 week low**
NDX Long - OTC 1,989` BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 72.0 Million
XAU Precious Metals 28.0 Million
Banking 107.5 Million**new all time high**
Biotechnology 565 Million
Money Market 1,083 BILLION
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 132.7 Million**new all time high
SPX Short- TEMPEST 21.3 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 207.3 Million**new all time high
NDX Short- VENTURE 16.5 Million
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After months of getting beat like borrowed mules, the lone ranger AG comes to the rescue again and saves the day for da Bulls. This one hurts real bad.
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Last night I was good and was anticipating the hard bounce. But I was not lucky as AG came one day too early for me Rydex-wise. I made the wrong move and switched into XAU instead of Long the market. This is what happens when you play it too cute and too close to the cuff. Yesterday 9.1 % drop in the NDX is reversed and doubled by a whopping all time single day gainer of 18.8%. I should feel fortunate that I only lost 2.4% in the XAU today after gaining 2.8% in SPX Short yesterday. But there is an empty feeling in the pit of my stomach like a kid going for cookies in the cookie jar only to come up with crumbs.
The Rydex Read was there last night but we pulled the wrong switch. We hang our head low and move on.
The daily manic rydex read continues.
1) SPX URSA TA books a new 52 week low. This is not surprising as no new significant monies were moving into this fund on the smart pullbacks. We are going to break below 200 million TA in short order now. BEARISH.
2) NDX Long OTC very surprising did not get above 2 Billion in TA. I think we can move back above 2.4 Billion 1 close before any meaningful pullback. BULLISH.
3) NDX Short Arktos 1 million away from new 52 week low. A near lock this will materialize what tomorrow?? BEARISH.
4) XAU Precious Metals TA plummets to 28 Million from over 52+ million on December 7th. I guess that funny smoke I was talkin bout in XAU last night was blown into my face and I went into the fog. <g> No - I don't smoke!!! BULLISH
5) Banking Index swells to a new high compliments of AG. BKX has now hit an all time high to close at BKX 944.29 and is poised to run to and thru BKX 1,000 if tomorrow validates todays close and avoiding the one day false break. This is the alternate scenario we talked about in MITA 5,787 after Dec 22nd market action:
....<BKX Analysis:
Watch the BKX from todays close and into Tuesday's intraday high. A 5 minute chart shows this rounding top as BKX did not participate in the final 15 minute melt-up in the market today . It simply stalled. I am anticipating an intrady high around BKX 910 before it turns back down.
Let these charts open up. If the screen shows up blank hit refresh and it should appear..
5 minute BKX:
charts-d.quote.com:443/977559492430?User=demo&Pswd=de...
This 30 minute chart shows the strong move made to achieve this overbought condition
charts-d.quote.com:443/977559350550?User=demo&Pswd=de...
The daily chart shows the 52 week high on September 12 at BKX 918.09. The all time high was set on April 27th, 1999 to close at BKX 934.81. Th all time intraday high was BKX 953.20 set on July 17th, 1998. It closed at BKX 926.73 on that day.
Daily BKX:
charts-d.quote.com:443/977559733820?User=demo&Pswd=de...
Weekly BKX:
charts-d.quote.com:443/977560175210?User=demo&Pswd=de...
The point of this BKX analysis is that it is this index that has kept the SPX from breaking much further than it did. And if SPX is going to continue to work lower BKX must turn back down within the next 2 trading days.
For the Bull argument, if we do in fact get into this BKX 920-930 area and in fact get back to back closes above BKX 935, then the SPX will have clearly bottomed and a new leader will emerge ala BKX and the SPX would then play piggyback moving back UP. BKX would then breakout and head toward BKX 1,000. I personally do not see this happening as Bank profits have been squeezed razor thin but I must come up with this alternate scenario nonetheless in case it surprises me and the BKX play is merely off of the fed cutting rates. Or moreover, that the BKX has been in this 3 year trading range and is now playing catch-up only reflecting its true inherent growth over the last few years.
I have been keeping a close tab on Rydex BKX total assets that I do not post on the daily update and this data is reflecting a clear overbought position>...
BULLISH if validated, BEARISH if it is one day false reading.
6)Money Market levels still above 1 Billion. BULLISH.
7)Double your pleasure long funds DOUBLE in ASSET SIZE AGAIN AFTER THE FACT. "This johnny come too lately long money" is getting whipped so bad it is getting beaten worse than a mexican pin~ata. Problem is, there ain't no festivities, candies or fruits inside the Dynamic Long money jar... only heartache... BEARISH.
Bottom line is this: Greenspan greased the skids with KY Jelly for the Bulls that any shortlived pullback should be bought prior to commencement of earnings season in the next week. But as money gets committed tilted more heavily long I will again get out early and try to book respectable profits.
BKX already in overbought territory on 5 day rsi level at 75.57. But it can still go higher to readings of 85+ in this environment.
SPX still under Overbought 5 day rsi at 62.24>>> Higher to run.
NDX 5 day rsi level yesterday was around 22. Today 400 points higher it is 59.16. Much higher to run.
COMP 5 day rsi at identical 59.41. Higher to go.
SOX 5 day rsi overbought at 76.19. Still higher to run to 85 + since strength in this index lead the charge from the depths.
Best Regards, J.T. |
