Greg,
Remember MDT?
Message 15025301
Message 15026142
Message 15026647
As you thought, MDT seems now to have broken out of the year-long channel it had been in, closing above the upper trendline of that channel, then taking out that peak last week:
askresearch.com
But now, MDT has corrected four straight days, and is approaching the upper trendline of that old channel again at 57. It looks to me like it will test this support, which also coincides with support from the rising moving averages.
The intraday 30 minute chart suggests to me that it is already finding support at 58 1/2, and the candles and technicals are showing early, but clear signs of reversal to the upside here.
askresearch.com
These early signals will require further confirmation, but I'd say this one is due to move. I'm particularly interested because the last breakout after a prolonged base about a year ago was rather powerful. Plus, I'm interested to see if it finds a new trading channel somewhere upstream, where it might be a good candidate for alternate short/long positions as it moves from one side of the trading channel to the other.
It will also be interesting to see how MDT fares the week ending Jan. 20, options expiration. The maximum pain point is at the 50 strike currently, with rather steep curves as you move away from the 50 strike.
iqauto.com
My pet theory is that a significant portion of MDT's volatility over the last year has been the result of professional options-related manipulation. If this is true, one of two things should happen: the max pain point drifts higher, or MDT trades back down towards 50. If the latter happens, that might represent a point where upside reversal might be anticipated.
Your thoughts, sir?
TIA,
Terry |
