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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2831)	1/4/2001 8:04:54 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Zeev, your path for the Naz is pretty much what I was thinking as well. As to the urgency of the Fed cuts, the more I think of it the more I'm beginning to think that the Fed was trying to shock people back into their senses. At the risk of being a latter day Jimmy Carter, I think the biggest issue is 'malaise'. The economy was clearly slowing in the fall and everyone was concerned about rising oil prices but it was hardly a crisis. Then came the election fiasco and we all sat around for over a month fretting about pregnant, dimpled or perforated whatchamacallits. That took the edge off the holiday season and we were all just moping around. This is not to say that the real softening wasn't a good reason for Fed easing but I think public confidence showed a real risk of spiraling downward. I have a friend who is a very well placed British economist. He was in the US for the last two weeks and he commented that he had never seen the public mood this bad. So perhaps the surprise nature of the cut was designed as a bit of shock treatment to get us to snap out of it. Henry

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