Greg, My take is that financials/brokers/technology are going to work out great in the coming days, weeks, months.
Here is my opinion:
Banks appear to have less risk than the others but I am picking all the sectors that rise in a rate cutting environment.
I will be playing what I feel will be the new theme for 2001.
Diversification! I am doing this because I believe the average investor will be as well and some non-tech stocks will be easier to move up.
This diversification will be the new approach among mutual fund and retail investors--it won't be all Nasdaq, IMHO. That is why I feel the banks/brokers are as good as or maybe even better than tech.
Certainly the options on banks are cheaper than tech.<g>
In tech, I like everything except internets. Like the PC space a little less. Like the wireless carriers, telcos, telecom equipment and optical/communication chips.
My only big PC related position is Intel but that is due to its valuation and the hopes/expectations of a better forward looking environment--expecting a lousy December quarter but that may already be discounted by the market. Expecting optical/communication chip and Cisco/Jnpr types to meet or beat expectations and that should push these stocks. Investors will see that these companies can beat/meet numbers even when the economy was falling apart. That will be an eye opener to many investors who will wonder what would happen when the economy swings positive again. IMHO, the fears in optical/communication chips are way overdone. Just wait for JDSU, JNPR, SDLI, PMCS earnings and we should see multiple expansion in these types of stocks.
BTW--Did research on Intel,which is near the end of its sharebuyback plans. Expecting a big announcement from them in the near term--especially if they disappoint again...we know last 2 weeks of December were not good. I believe they were authorized to purchase upto 150 million shares in the December quarter--I don't think they came close. They bought about 15 million at much higher prices in September quarter at a lot higher prices. It may be time for a new, revised share repurchase plan coming from Intel. |
